Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    166.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  24.4  25.0  22.5  25.3  26.3  24.1  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  95.0 101.0  89.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  31.0  11.0  30.0  36.0  47.0  32.0  20.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.5  24.4  25.0  22.5  25.3  26.3  24.1  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       15.9%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        5.6%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        3.3%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        1.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       20.1%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%        5.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%        9.4%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h       13.1%        3.5%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h       32.5%       26.0%       29.2%