Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    164.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  17.5  21.2  19.8  19.3  22.1  20.4  20.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  91.0  80.0  76.0  70.0  66.0  58.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  25.0   5.0  29.0  40.0  52.0  23.0   8.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.7  17.5  21.2  19.8  19.3  22.1  20.4  20.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        4.6%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       29.8%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       12.0%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.5%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        5.8%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       35.0%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       14.3%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       24.9%       19.7%       22.3%
 70kt / 48h       17.8%        7.4%       12.6%
 65kt / 72h       36.5%       16.6%       26.6%