Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  19.3  15.0  17.2  18.4  14.5  12.6   9.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  86.0  90.0  91.0  87.0  77.0  76.0  79.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  49.0  44.0  55.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.1  19.3  15.0  17.2  18.4  14.5  12.6   9.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        3.9%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       32.1%       24.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       12.9%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       12.1%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        7.6%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       23.3%       37.4%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h       16.2%       15.3%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       41.3%       30.4%       35.8%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%       11.2%       17.3%
 65kt / 72h       59.4%       37.6%       48.5%