Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    160.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  14.5  14.7  19.5  21.5  20.6  21.4  23.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  87.0  93.0  94.0  83.0  78.0  84.0  73.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  59.0  58.0  70.0  22.0  26.0  33.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.1  14.5  14.7  19.5  21.5  20.6  21.4  23.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       24.1%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%        8.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        7.7%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       25.3%       18.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.7%        8.7%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       24.3%       16.7%       20.5%
 70kt / 48h       17.9%        5.0%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h       36.2%        8.3%       22.3%