Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    160.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  12.8  12.7  11.4  12.3  16.0  11.7   9.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  89.0  93.0  95.0  81.0  81.0  83.0  68.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  59.0  62.0  36.0  35.0  21.0  22.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.1  12.8  12.7  11.4  12.3  16.0  11.7   9.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.3%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       39.7%       29.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       17.7%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       17.7%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       10.1%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       24.0%       47.2%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       24.0%       20.7%
 55kt / 48h       48.2%       40.7%       44.4%
 70kt / 48h       21.9%       16.8%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       51.7%       38.4%       45.1%