Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  20.4  14.9   9.9  11.4  11.6   9.9  11.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  96.0  99.0  84.0  76.0  81.0  75.0  51.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  36.0  35.0  40.0  32.0  17.0  16.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  20.4  14.9   9.9  11.4  11.6   9.9  11.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.5%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.3%       39.8%       29.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       18.2%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       18.2%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        9.8%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       49.7%       36.5%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       26.8%       22.0%
 55kt / 48h       47.2%       41.9%       44.5%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       18.2%       20.3%
 65kt / 72h       58.4%       42.4%       50.4%