Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  17.1  14.6  14.2  16.3  16.0  16.1  22.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  87.0  75.0  82.0  71.0  47.0  67.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  32.0  53.0  54.0  15.0  10.0  44.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.3  17.1  14.6  14.2  16.3  16.0  16.1  22.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.3%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       30.6%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       11.7%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       11.7%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        6.4%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.7%       33.6%       24.2%
 55kt / 36h        9.8%       14.1%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h       29.1%       24.0%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h       20.8%        8.2%       14.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.0%       26.6%       24.8%