Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  12.5  13.5  13.2  11.6  10.4  13.9  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  61.0  85.0  69.0  36.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  34.0  26.0   5.0 -12.0  37.0  35.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.2  12.5  13.5  13.2  11.6  10.4  13.9  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.2%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       33.4%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%       14.4%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       13.7%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        7.2%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       42.4%       30.9%
 55kt / 36h       14.5%       20.7%       17.6%
 55kt / 48h       36.7%       32.1%       34.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       12.1%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       29.3%       32.2%