Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  12.5  14.0  13.2  14.8  20.7  23.3  31.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  71.0  75.0  71.0  81.0  92.0  40.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  44.0   8.0   2.0  45.0  47.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  12.5  14.0  13.2  14.8  20.7  23.3  31.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       25.4%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       10.5%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        8.6%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.8%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h       15.6%       29.3%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h       11.2%       11.2%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.7%       15.1%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h       14.6%        4.6%        9.6%
 65kt / 72h       17.1%       26.5%       21.8%