Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    156.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  12.9  14.5  11.7  15.8  19.3  18.5  21.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  87.0  82.0  79.0  88.0 109.0  64.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  15.0  -7.0  25.0  41.0  14.0 -12.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.2  12.9  14.5  11.7  15.8  19.3  18.5  21.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        5.1%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       36.8%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       16.9%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       16.4%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        8.3%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%       42.1%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h       13.7%       20.3%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       30.6%       27.0%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       10.0%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       26.1%       34.3%       30.2%