Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    155.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  12.2  14.5  14.1  21.7  26.0  29.3  31.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  78.0  66.0  99.0  60.0  37.0  29.0  21.0  F  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -26.0   6.0  38.0   1.0  -6.0  -9.0  -8.0  U VU  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.7  12.2  14.5  14.1  21.7  26.0  29.3  31.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        7.3%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.3%       43.4%       30.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       24.1%       17.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       24.1%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       11.4%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       39.3%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       20.5%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%       18.5%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        6.1%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%       31.0%       20.2%