Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  10.3  13.9  14.0  17.3  19.0  22.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  63.0  71.0  34.0  30.0  19.0  27.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0  11.0  23.0  -9.0 -11.0 -17.0 -18.0  -5.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.4  10.3  13.9  14.0  17.3  19.0  22.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%       11.2%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.2%       45.6%       32.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       28.2%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.4%       28.2%       18.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       13.8%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h       15.7%       42.9%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       24.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.1%       22.6%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        7.8%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%       20.7%       13.9%