Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    152.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  11.6  13.5  16.5  15.6  18.4  22.4  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  56.0  32.0  28.0  21.0  26.0  36.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   8.0 -11.0 -21.0 -39.0 -23.0 -27.0   8.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.3  11.6  13.5  16.5  15.6  18.4  22.4  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       16.4%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       25.3%       52.9%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       41.7%       29.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.9%       41.7%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       19.9%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       47.0%       31.7%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       30.4%       20.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       29.6%       23.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        9.9%        7.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        6.8%        5.2%