Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.3  21.2  20.4  26.4  28.2  26.1  23.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  32.0  29.0  20.0  25.0  33.0  39.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0 -17.0 -22.0 -50.0 -23.0  -7.0  18.0  31.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  19.3  21.2  20.4  26.4  28.2  26.1  23.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%       11.3%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       39.9%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       27.8%       19.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.5%       27.8%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       11.1%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       28.8%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%       14.3%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       15.6%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%       12.3%        6.3%