Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  12.6  15.1  16.1  17.9  17.4  13.4  12.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  21.0  23.0  34.0  37.0  38.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -37.0 -35.0 -48.0 -14.0   9.0   9.0  30.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.7  12.6  15.1  16.1  17.9  17.4  13.4  12.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.5%       27.5%       24.5%
 25kt / 24h       37.0%       61.6%       49.3%
 30kt / 24h       35.2%       58.1%       46.6%
 35kt / 24h       35.2%       58.1%       46.6%
 40kt / 24h       10.9%       32.2%       21.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%       51.7%       38.1%
 55kt / 36h       16.1%       36.9%       26.5%
 55kt / 48h       19.3%       36.9%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%       12.4%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%