Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  10.8  16.8  16.2  19.3  15.4  15.7  20.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  20.0  23.0  31.0  37.0  36.0  43.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -40.0 -45.0 -15.0   9.0  20.0   7.0   5.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  10.8  16.8  16.2  19.3  15.4  15.7  20.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.7%       57.0%       60.3%
 25kt / 24h       75.3%       82.3%       78.8%
 30kt / 24h       75.3%       82.3%       78.8%
 35kt / 24h       75.3%       82.3%       78.8%
 40kt / 24h       38.5%       62.9%       50.7%
 45kt / 36h       39.6%       67.3%       53.5%
 55kt / 36h       28.5%       58.3%       43.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       40.7%       29.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%       14.8%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%