Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142019 190909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.00    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  30.2  31.7  42.1  46.2  65.2  74.3  78.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.7  40.0  20.7  11.6   4.7   0.4  -1.6  -3.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  38.0  14.0  23.0  27.0  12.0  14.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  42.0  36.0  31.0  25.0  26.0  27.0  32.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.9  30.2  31.7  42.1  46.2  65.2  74.3  78.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%