Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  26.1  29.9  28.9  35.1  37.0  42.6  40.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  56.0  48.0  44.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  84.0  76.0  80.0  91.0  52.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.7  26.1  29.9  28.9  35.1  37.0  42.6  40.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        8.7%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.7%       40.2%       31.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       21.1%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       21.1%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        9.9%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       35.3%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%       16.4%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       11.0%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        3.8%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        1.2%        2.2%