Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  29.0  34.3  36.2  39.2  42.0  45.1  48.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  51.0  49.0  53.0  60.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  96.0  91.0  91.0 111.0  64.0  46.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  29.0  34.3  36.2  39.2  42.0  45.1  48.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.5%       16.5%       19.5%
 25kt / 24h       41.2%       47.5%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       24.9%       31.6%       28.2%
 35kt / 24h       23.2%       31.6%       27.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       19.3%       14.5%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       30.4%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       12.9%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        8.6%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        0.5%        1.1%