Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.6  25.1  27.8  34.9  31.8  26.6  34.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  47.0  47.0  52.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  65.0  92.0  81.0  66.0  60.0  94.0  91.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.2  26.6  25.1  27.8  34.9  31.8  26.6  34.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.6%       25.3%       36.0%
 25kt / 24h       56.5%       61.1%       58.8%
 30kt / 24h       47.3%       55.4%       51.3%
 35kt / 24h       47.3%       55.4%       51.3%
 40kt / 24h       32.0%       41.4%       36.7%
 45kt / 36h       31.0%       34.9%       32.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.0%       17.4%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       19.4%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        3.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        2.1%        3.2%