Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  22.4  28.0  34.3  29.3  30.3  30.2  34.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  48.0  57.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  55.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  82.0  83.0  59.0  59.0  94.0  81.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.7  22.4  28.0  34.3  29.3  30.3  30.2  34.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        8.1%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       22.8%       30.7%       26.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       22.2%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       22.2%       16.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       12.2%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       12.1%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        3.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        9.5%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%