Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  23.6  19.3  20.8  23.6  28.7  33.5  47.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  55.0  39.0  30.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  70.0  87.0 129.0 113.0 115.0 128.0 134.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.4  23.6  19.3  20.8  23.6  28.7  33.5  47.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.1%       39.2%       48.7%
 25kt / 24h       72.5%       78.2%       75.4%
 30kt / 24h       68.9%       78.2%       73.5%
 35kt / 24h       68.9%       78.2%       73.5%
 40kt / 24h       45.2%       69.2%       57.2%
 45kt / 36h       48.5%       45.7%       47.1%
 55kt / 36h       25.6%       26.9%       26.2%
 55kt / 48h       21.3%       26.1%       23.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        3.6%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%