Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  20.8  18.3  21.7  25.7  23.7  33.4  35.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  62.0  69.0  60.0  40.0  31.0  28.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  77.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  77.0 123.0 120.0 103.0  98.0  92.0  78.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  69.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  20.8  18.3  21.7  25.7  23.7  33.4  35.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.6%       23.2%       28.9%
 25kt / 24h       59.1%       61.7%       60.4%
 30kt / 24h       46.3%       61.0%       53.6%
 35kt / 24h       46.3%       61.0%       53.6%
 40kt / 24h       26.5%       48.5%       37.5%
 45kt / 36h       43.3%       29.6%       36.5%
 55kt / 36h       16.2%       14.2%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       16.0%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        2.1%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%