Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  24.8  23.5  31.4  37.4  35.2  45.4  54.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  38.0  29.0  29.0  31.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  42.3  19.8   0.0  -1.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  98.0  89.0 113.0  92.0  74.0 111.0 139.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.2  24.8  23.5  31.4  37.4  35.2  45.4  54.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.0%       13.1%       28.5%
 25kt / 24h       27.3%       18.1%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       12.5%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       12.5%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%        5.4%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%