Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  29.1  38.4  40.3  49.1  59.2  65.4  68.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0  28.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  32.9   4.3 -12.0 -18.3 -53.3 -70.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 104.0  65.0  76.0 111.0 115.0  78.0 127.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.7  29.1  38.4  40.3  49.1  59.2  65.4  68.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        2.1%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%