Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152019 190906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  34.4  35.6  44.2  56.2  57.6  67.2  74.5  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  35.1   2.7 -10.6 -24.1 -56.3 -69.4 -68.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0  85.0  98.0 109.0 105.0  82.0 139.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.1  34.4  35.6  44.2  56.2  57.6  67.2  74.5  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        1.8%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%