Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162019 190903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  21.5  18.0  24.8  34.5  38.1  43.9  52.1  N  N  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  99.0 110.0 101.0  83.0  53.0  42.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  84.0  82.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  69.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  21.5  18.0  24.8  34.5  38.1  43.9  52.1  N  N  F  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        7.1%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        9.0%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%