Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  28.7  28.0  30.1  31.2  34.8  34.2  27.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  69.0  79.0  42.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.9  64.7  69.8  81.7 113.5 140.0 137.0 109.8  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0 -11.0  -5.0   0.0   9.0   4.0  10.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.9  28.7  28.0  30.1  31.2  34.8  34.2  27.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%