Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  33.0  28.0  21.1  19.5  26.8  23.7  20.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  39.0   6.0   4.0  16.0  20.0  18.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 132.3 113.5 111.6 119.4 127.9 137.0 140.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -5.0 -12.0  16.0  15.0  17.0   8.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.7  33.0  28.0  21.1  19.5  26.8  23.7  20.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%