Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  21.1  19.4  18.9  19.0  20.3  21.5  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  21.0  15.0  17.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 107.9 105.7 103.6 101.5  99.4  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  40.0  63.0  78.0 115.0  92.0 138.0 131.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.4  21.1  19.4  18.9  19.0  20.3  21.5  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        4.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       22.0%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%        8.7%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        8.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       18.6%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%        6.5%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        6.0%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%        2.4%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        0.5%        1.3%