Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.1  19.5  16.9  15.0  20.9  28.0  35.8  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  49.0  46.0  25.0  19.0  16.0  14.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 105.1 100.7 100.7  98.6  96.5  92.4  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  59.0  69.0  75.0  76.0 104.0 116.0 124.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  81.0  84.0  82.0  76.0  70.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.3  19.1  19.5  16.9  15.0  20.9  28.0  35.8  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%       13.1%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       42.6%       36.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       29.1%       24.3%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       29.1%       24.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       14.5%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       18.6%       38.2%       28.4%
 55kt / 36h       11.5%       21.9%       16.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        9.8%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        4.3%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%