Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  18.9  20.5  21.1  25.5  35.3  50.5  57.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  22.0  23.0  17.0  18.0  22.0  11.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9 100.7 100.7  98.6  94.4  92.4  88.5  55.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  62.0  57.0  97.0 108.0 115.0 112.0  93.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  82.0  88.0  85.0  81.0  76.0  67.0  58.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  18.9  20.5  21.1  25.5  35.3  50.5  57.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.0%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       14.6%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        6.6%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        6.6%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        8.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%