Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  23.4  24.7  34.6  48.7  61.6  68.3  80.3  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  12.0   6.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  89.4  83.5  74.4  78.0  66.1  37.7  38.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  65.0 100.0 105.0  93.0  82.0  88.0 123.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  72.0  66.0  61.0  49.0  45.0  40.0  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.6  23.4  24.7  34.6  48.7  61.6  68.3  80.3  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        2.3%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        5.2%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%