Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  28.6  35.8  47.2  58.9  63.6  77.4  86.4  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.5  78.5  74.8  73.0  52.2  35.9  32.7  29.7  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  87.0  91.0  95.0  77.0  77.0 123.0 125.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  79.0  77.0  68.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  28.6  35.8  47.2  58.9  63.6  77.4  86.4  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        0.9%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%