Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182019 190921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  33.5  46.5  55.3  54.6  64.5  76.5  83.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.5  74.8  74.8  46.7  45.4  32.7  32.7  16.2  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0 116.0  83.0  68.0 110.0 127.0 133.0  92.0  F  F  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  65.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  51.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.6  33.5  46.5  55.3  54.6  64.5  76.5  83.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        1.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%