Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 190927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    135.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  28.8  28.1  26.1  24.4  20.9  20.1  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0  80.0  65.0  55.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  34.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  50.0  34.0  61.0  57.0  65.0  71.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.4  28.8  28.1  26.1  24.4  20.9  20.1  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        3.9%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       27.2%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%        9.5%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        9.5%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.6%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%       36.5%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%       17.0%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%       17.0%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h       11.5%        8.9%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       15.8%       12.4%       14.1%