Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 190930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.6  30.6  31.9  35.2  38.6  48.4  48.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  28.0   4.0   0.0  13.0  10.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  77.4  64.4  51.5  44.4  37.9  41.7  36.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  63.0  31.0  62.0  88.0  76.0  69.0  89.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.3  28.6  30.6  31.9  35.2  38.6  48.4  48.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        2.5%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        3.6%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.4%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%