Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 190930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.2  34.8  38.5  45.6  49.1  49.7  54.8  59.5 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0  13.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  31.5  30.0  25.8  20.4  14.3   9.8  -4.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0 103.0 118.0  65.0  55.0  75.0 105.0  95.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.2  34.8  38.5  45.6  49.1  49.7  54.8  59.5 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        2.4%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%