Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 191001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.8  45.2  43.5  46.4  55.1  51.6  46.9  49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.4  40.4  30.9  24.7  11.9  -2.8  -5.3  10.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0 102.0  89.0 114.0 104.0  82.0  56.0  62.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.8  45.2  43.5  46.4  55.1  51.6  46.9  49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%