Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 191001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.3  42.5  48.8  56.5  51.2  50.2  47.9  49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.5  34.8  28.7  17.6  10.2   5.1  20.0  24.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  92.0 108.0 101.0  80.0  73.0  52.0  48.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.3  42.5  48.8  56.5  51.2  50.2  47.9  49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%