Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192019 191002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.0  39.5  45.7  49.1  41.7  40.2  38.9  42.4 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.3  31.4  43.3  41.6  45.9  46.8  43.3  29.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  55.0  56.0  70.0  53.0  58.0  50.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  50.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.0  39.5  45.7  49.1  41.7  40.2  38.9  42.4 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%