Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  23.1  21.7  24.6  25.4  26.5  29.2  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0 108.0 122.0 108.0  99.0 104.0 109.0 109.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  58.0  53.0  81.0  87.0  77.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.2  23.1  21.7  24.6  25.4  26.5  29.2  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.4%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       31.4%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       10.7%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       10.7%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       43.2%       29.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.3%       21.3%       16.8%
 55kt / 48h       37.1%       23.7%       30.4%
 70kt / 48h       22.1%       12.7%       17.4%
 65kt / 72h       58.2%       33.1%       45.7%