Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    159.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  22.4  25.1  26.9  30.2  30.0  35.0  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 120.0 101.0  99.0 103.0 107.0 109.0  99.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  53.0  81.0  87.0  77.0  58.0  57.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.2  22.4  25.1  26.9  30.2  30.0  35.0  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        8.8%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       31.0%       48.0%       39.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%       23.1%       19.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       23.1%       15.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       13.3%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       23.4%       55.1%       39.2%
 55kt / 36h       17.5%       32.4%       25.0%
 55kt / 48h       36.4%       26.6%       31.5%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%       15.3%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       48.5%       29.0%       38.8%