Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  23.2  21.1  22.9  25.9  26.2  25.7  27.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  119.0 107.0 102.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 106.0  92.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 119.0 106.0  88.0  98.0 117.0 102.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.4  23.2  21.1  22.9  25.9  26.2  25.7  27.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%       13.2%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       48.7%       61.2%       55.0%
 30kt / 24h       30.4%       37.6%       34.0%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       37.6%       26.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.8%       27.3%       17.5%
 45kt / 36h       40.2%       66.6%       53.4%
 55kt / 36h       29.5%       45.5%       37.5%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       45.9%       47.9%
 70kt / 48h       28.9%       27.6%       28.3%
 65kt / 72h       60.7%       28.6%       44.6%