Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    152.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  29.3  35.0  30.3  30.7  33.8  38.9  36.5  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  93.0  95.0  93.0  78.0  59.0  55.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  74.0  91.0  93.0  97.0 114.0 119.0  86.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.4  29.3  35.0  30.3  30.7  33.8  38.9  36.5  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        8.8%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.8%       36.8%       32.8%
 30kt / 24h       16.5%       19.5%       18.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       19.5%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       12.8%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       23.8%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%        8.6%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       12.3%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        2.6%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%        1.7%        8.8%