Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    151.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  32.1  32.3  32.9  42.4  43.9  48.3  46.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  96.0  93.0  78.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0 109.0 116.0 113.0 121.0 128.0  73.0  77.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.8  32.1  32.3  32.9  42.4  43.9  48.3  46.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.0%       36.3%       48.6%
 25kt / 24h       69.7%       70.4%       70.0%
 30kt / 24h       59.1%       64.7%       61.9%
 35kt / 24h       59.1%       64.7%       61.9%
 40kt / 24h       33.4%       54.5%       43.9%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%       37.8%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       18.4%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       13.1%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        0.4%        1.2%