Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    149.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  28.8  27.1  31.8  31.7  38.1  32.0  35.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  91.0  75.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 126.0 150.0 145.0 157.0 121.0  90.0 100.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.1  28.8  27.1  31.8  31.7  38.1  32.0  35.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.7%       35.6%       54.2%
 25kt / 24h       70.0%       60.5%       65.2%
 30kt / 24h       63.8%       55.4%       59.6%
 35kt / 24h       56.9%       55.4%       56.2%
 40kt / 24h       48.8%       45.7%       47.3%
 45kt / 36h       70.5%       32.5%       51.5%
 55kt / 36h       23.4%       17.0%       20.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%        9.9%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%