Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  31.8  35.1  39.9  44.5  45.7  51.9  48.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  61.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 143.0 143.0 120.0 122.0 108.0 107.0  83.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.2  31.8  35.1  39.9  44.5  45.7  51.9  48.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.0%        0.0%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%