Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  30.2  35.3  43.0  48.6  51.6  55.6  70.2  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  74.0  72.0  40.0  32.0  36.0  42.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  79.0  76.0 115.0 105.0  78.0  82.0  94.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.5  30.2  35.3  43.0  48.6  51.6  55.6  70.2  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        0.0%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%