Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202019 191010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.3  27.4  31.6  35.8  47.3  52.0  58.1  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  25.0  29.0  39.0  36.0  39.0  33.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  19.6  10.7   4.4  -5.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  85.0  70.0 112.0  78.0  78.0  63.0  55.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.7  22.3  27.4  31.6  35.8  47.3  52.0  58.1  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        0.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%